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余杭区劳动保障信息网对不起,VLoG的对手不是抖动。

丽莎 玛丽 普雷斯利

    Wisky源码:soma技术(techsuoma)与单手手机相比,可以快速播放SONY A7 II短片,无论何时何地,基于手持相机、PTZ、UAV和Vlog专业编辑设备的Go Pro级别更像是PGC的产品,并且具有画面艺术的肌理。Vlog的表现风格迅速从短片中脱颖而出,占据了短片美学领域的高度。记录烹饪也可以是一种创造。Vlog视频博客、视频博客、博客视频版本、日常生活视频记录的全称。通常Vlog长度为1-10分钟之间,内容为日常记录的碎片,没有刻意的故事设计,强调表现和真实的日常与鲜明的个性,在内容上会更加注重画面的协调与审美。射击技巧和高水平的编辑技巧。博主可能是VLogo在该国早期推出的高知名度Vlogger之一。例如,VLogo,“家庭烹饪在年底,”是幸福的例子VLO。534万分钟的观察和1万7000分钟的五分钟VLO赞美主要记录了在家里第八次和第八十一次的烹饪过程。产品包装设计,给家里做饭,吃细节。两个超凡脱俗的年轻人做饭有点笨拙,有点热情,录音风格随意,幽默,真实,引领着用户的“美好生活”共鸣。以Vlog第一人称视角为主线,强烈的个人风格记录允许用户产生共鸣体验的同时观看、情感共鸣和创作者、体验和博客作者之间的微妙陪伴,这种互动更深、更粘稠。在2012,第一个VLogo出现在YouTube上。近年来,世界各地越来越多的年轻人用鲜明色彩的个人Vlog记录日常生活,经过5年的发展,从2013年到2017年,vlog每天有200多个Youtube上传到每小时2000多个,现在在Youtube上甚至可以检索resu。LTS一亿与VLoG相关。其中最具代表性的是CaseyNeistat,作为一名早期的职业Vlogger Casey在YouTube上连续600多天在Vlog日志、城市的街道、滑水、穿圣诞老人无人机飞行的滑雪服、修改电动滑板等创意内容的vlog地毯Ala。DDIN让人们发现一切新鲜事物。凯西以其独特的个性、独特的游戏性和对优质图片的追求,赢得了数以千万计的粉丝和YouTube上亿的播放支持,被玩家称为vlog之父。在中国,井岳和冬瓜的先驱者从模仿凯西开始。在下半年的短片中,VLogo已经准备好在当前国内市场上移动。虽然比赛在少数群体的生长期仍然是积极的,它也产生了大量的高人气博主,如,冬瓜,cbvivi,*飞猪,喂竹,都有微博粉丝数以百万计,粉体的速度也很快。例如,从2017年5月到一年多的时间里,Jingyue的微博粉丝数量从60000人增加到了100万人。视频平台也嗅到了新的机会,通过对产品功能的设计协助生产和爱好者博客博客社区建设,扩大自己的触角伸向传媒领域。VUE和Flash都具有VLUG的生产函数。用户可以直接使用这两个应用程序来编辑VLoG素材,添加音乐和过滤器。为了沉淀更多的VLO创建者,采取主流的VLogo社区的高度。各大视频平台取得了很大的努力,在2018春节推出的“一分钟”创作的挑战,邀请用户拍摄60秒的视频博客,讲述自己的故事,关于春节。萧颖开始把一年的博主程序孵化2018, 2018部分提出了自己的三年计划——V计划,和创作者的20%头得到的奖金。18天发布博客正式召集在9个月的微博官方博客,过去30天,发布了4多个博客,都有资格申请成为微博认证的博主,享受微博的支持。官方微博上传操作也被各种交通星工作,大V合作拍摄视频博客,扩大博客的影响。另一个消息来源说,“短视频腾讯的另一个战略YOO视频”也与VLogo和作者的负责人联系。同时,品牌也敏锐地意识到,对使用者的潜在影响,OPPO手机,携程旅行,品牌Dyson卷发棒等都试图通过赞助或品牌植入方式广告合作博客博主。例如,R17亲OPPO威尔斯拍摄“发现晚上“沃客之美,的主持下,携程旅行拍摄“夜以继日”京都大阪的比赛很好的反应。比赛的对手是没有颤音,但因其迅速崛起的博客国内商业潜力的影响下,博客被一些人认为很快就会下一口短视频后成为颤音。然而,一些通用的Vlogger对Vlog并不乐观,比如冬瓜认为Vlog会起火,但不会成为出口,cbvivi认为Vlog不适合做生意。”My personal Vlog is unlikely to become a short video of the traffic antidote that has the following main reasons: first, the creation of Vlog threshold is very high, determines that it can only stay in the relatively small circle. A slogan is "to be the creator, but the user from browsing to the creator, one of the biggest gap is the video creation difficulty. First of all equipment, smooth texture and vlog HD lens language is very high to the shooting equipment requirements, the mainstream vlog shooting equipment must ensure that there is at least SONY A7 II, Go Pro and the level of the camera equipped with a stabilizer, also have to consider the UAV up档次设备,这是为广大用户迅速采取颤音它有相当遥不可及。Vlog also has very high requirements on the shooting technique, compared with a mirror trill - short video, the creators of the vlog camera language, time, music, editing rhythm have very professional grasp, and great energy consumption. The more well reveal their each material there will be 60G-70G in an interview, the 5 minutes of the Vlog need to spend 6 to 10 hours of clips from, but also in the computer editing software to complete. Unless it is a full-time Vlogger or severe enthusiasts, the general users are unlikely to have the time and energy and creative level. 第二,VLogo的拟人更像是一种艺术形式,很难工业化。That is a non pipelined and any form of artistic expression, such as crosstalk, talk show, Vlog creator's personality charm and talent are not ordinary people can have. Vlog although it is running account records, but the distinctive language of the camera scheduling, character and self expression is very unique. This uniqueness can be seen from the current head of Vlogger background: Casey is a real flim maker, has a background in occupation producer, before doing vlog has done a lot of fame through viral video. Cbvivi is the editor, product manager, as editor and director of new media in "the Bund pictorial", wrote one called "see, the man in the fly!" 博客。Well the Zhongshan University Department of Philosophy PhD, "the second quarter" vicious beam Huanxiu writers, and the earliest renren.com network red, he read a graduate student writing "in Amsterdam to eat mushroom is a kind of what kind of experience" once widespread in Holland. 飞猪的“博客”在学校被称为“中国最好的博客”的梁文道*目前。目前,飞猪是CEO的闪光点。As a kind of self expression of content and form, Vlogger of personal charm is to help users to see Vlog main thrust, a few interesting soul in vlog in reality really is a genius and fun, as well as more gentle, male sterile type, with distinctive personal style knowledge with video production capa城市有一个不错的,Scanty Vlogger模型的女朋友,这直接导致了一个非常有限数量的高品质的VLO火灾。第三,中国的VLO创作缺乏文化土壤。The core of Vlog is to share life, and through the sharing of life to express individual consciousness and attitude, and the Chinese traditionally did not share the love of the subconscious. But Chinese market does not have the experience of DV generation, the lack of home video culture, Chinese users did not shoot video to record life habits. In recent years the short video hot let more and more people want to express themselves in front of the camera, but the more prominent is the color value, performance, suction eye ingredients, how talent shows itself from a pile of content, such as vibrato on a variety of virtuosity, show Yan ZhixiU图、搞笑,可以说是用世界创造一个过滤器,VoL强调的自然和真实的叙述不是一种类型。Vlog is popular largely its authenticity, in more and more individuals begin to pay attention to their own, pay attention to the difference, the unique charm of personality is an important reason to follow all the people. And this is precisely one of the differences between Chinese and Western cultures, that people have no self adapting to high-profile expression differences, and have the confidence of the unique nature of the self. Back up Vlog and trill topic, I think this is not the competition between Vlog and trill, but both sides are in a completely different track, the bottleneck of Vlog itself or the plight of it, and not too much vibrato. Vibrato is a timely to meet the user satisfaction of entertainment products, he just like the sea, you can always find a suitable for your island, while VLog is the integration of social networking, outdoor adventures, and personal IP, the spirit of adventure, a handful of people is the spirit of t他比赛,认真,定位和观众都不一样。VLogo或许能获得很多的人气,但肯定不会达到大多数人的。此外,不要想太多。你不能做VLog.

Wisky yuan ma: soma ji shu techsuoma yu dan shou shou ji xiang bi, ke yi kuai su bo fang SONY A7 II duan pian, wu lun he shi he di, ji yu shou chi xiang ji PTZ UAV he Vlog zhuan ye bian ji she bei de Go Pro ji bie geng xiang shi PGC de chan pin, bing qie ju you hua mian yi shu de ji li. Vlog de biao xian feng ge xun su cong duan pian zhong tuo ying er chu, zhan ju le duan pian mei xue ling yu de gao du. ji lu peng ren ye ke yi shi yi zhong chuang zao. Vlog shi pin bo ke shi pin bo ke bo ke shi pin ban ben ri chang sheng huo shi pin ji lu de quan cheng. tong chang Vlog chang du wei 110 fen zhong zhi jian, nei rong wei ri chang ji lu de sui pian, mei you ke yi de gu shi she ji, qiang diao biao xian he zhen shi de ri chang yu xian ming de ge xing, zai nei rong shang hui geng jia zhu zhong hua mian di xie tiao yu shen mei. she ji ji qiao he gao shui ping de bian ji ji qiao. bo zhu ke neng shi VLogo zai gai guo zao qi tui chu de gao zhi ming du Vlogger zhi yi. li ru, VLogo," jia ting peng ren zai nian di," shi xing fu de li zi VLO. 534 wan fen zhong de guan cha he 1 wan 7000 fen zhong de wu fen zhong VLO zan mei zhu yao ji lu le zai jia li di ba ci he di ba shi yi ci de peng ren guo cheng. chan pin bao zhuang she ji, gei jia li zuo fan, chi xi jie. liang ge chao fan tuo su de nian qing ren zuo fan you dian ben zhuo, you dian re qing, lu yin feng ge sui yi, you mo, zhen shi, yin ling zhe yong hu de" mei hao sheng huo" gong ming. yi Vlog di yi ren cheng shi jiao wei zhu xian, qiang lie de ge ren feng ge ji lu yun xu yong hu chan sheng gong ming ti yan de tong shi guan kan qing gan gong ming he chuang zuo zhe ti yan he bo ke zuo zhe zhi jian de wei miao pei ban, zhe zhong hu dong geng shen geng nian chou. zai 2012, di yi ge VLogo chu xian zai YouTube shang. jin nian lai, shi jie ge di yue lai yue duo de nian qing ren yong xian ming se cai de ge ren Vlog ji lu ri chang sheng huo, jing guo 5 nian de fa zhan, cong 2013 nian dao 2017 nian, vlog mei tian you 200 duo ge Youtube shang chuan dao mei xiao shi 2000 duo ge, xian zai zai Youtube shang shen zhi ke yi jian suo resu. LTS yi yi yu VLoG xiang guan. qi zhong zui ju dai biao xing de shi CaseyNeistat, zuo wei yi ming zao qi de zhi ye Vlogger Casey zai YouTube shang lian xu 600 duo tian zai Vlog ri zhi cheng shi de jie dao hua shui chuan sheng dan lao ren wu ren ji fei xing de hua xue fu xiu gai dian dong hua ban deng chuang yi nei rong de vlog di tan Ala. DDIN rang ren men fa xian yi qie xin xian shi wu. kai xi yi qi du te de ge xing du te de you xi xing he dui you zhi tu pian de zhui qiu, ying de le shu yi qian wan ji de fen si he YouTube shang yi de bo fang zhi chi, bei wan jia cheng wei vlog zhi fu. zai zhong guo, jing yue he dong gua de xian qu zhe cong mo fang kai xi kai shi. zai xia ban nian de duan pian zhong, VLogo yi jing zhun bei hao zai dang qian guo nei shi chang shang yi dong. sui ran bi sai zai shao shu qun ti de sheng chang qi reng ran shi ji ji de, ta ye chan sheng le da liang de gao ren qi bo zhu, ru, dong gua, cbvivi, fei zhu, wei zhu, dou you wei bo fen si shu yi bai wan ji, fen ti de su du ye hen kuai. li ru, cong 2017 nian 5 yue dao yi nian duo de shi jian li, Jingyue de wei bo fen si shu liang cong 60000 ren zeng jia dao le 100 wan ren. shi pin ping tai ye xiu dao le xin de ji hui, tong guo dui chan pin gong neng de she ji xie zhu sheng chan he ai hao zhe bo ke bo ke she qu jian she, kuo da zi ji de chu jiao shen xiang chuan mei ling yu. VUE he Flash dou ju you VLUG de sheng chan han shu. yong hu ke yi zhi jie shi yong zhe liang ge ying yong cheng xu lai bian ji VLoG su cai, tian jia yin yue he guo lv qi. wei le chen dian geng duo de VLO chuang jian zhe, cai qu zhu liu de VLogo she qu de gao du. ge da shi pin ping tai qu de le hen da de nu li, zai 2018 chun jie tui chu de" yi fen zhong" chuang zuo de tiao zhan, yao qing yong hu pai she 60 miao de shi pin bo ke, jiang shu zi ji de gu shi, guan yu chun jie. xiao ying kai shi ba yi nian de bo zhu cheng xu fu hua 2018, 2018 bu fen ti chu le zi ji de san nian ji hua V ji hua, he chuang zuo zhe de 20 tou de dao de jiang jin. 18 tian fa bu bo ke zheng shi zhao ji zai 9 ge yue de wei bo guan fang bo ke, guo qu 30 tian, fa bu le 4 duo ge bo ke, dou you zi ge shen qing cheng wei wei bo ren zheng de bo zhu, xiang shou wei bo de zhi chi. guan fang wei bo shang chuan cao zuo ye bei ge zhong jiao tong xing gong zuo, da V he zuo pai she shi pin bo ke, kuo da bo ke de ying xiang. ling yi ge xiao xi lai yuan shuo," duan shi pin teng xun de ling yi ge zhan lue YOO shi pin" ye yu VLogo he zuo zhe de fu ze ren lian xi. tong shi, pin pai ye min rui di yi shi dao, dui shi yong zhe de qian zai ying xiang, OPPO shou ji, xie cheng lv xing, pin pai Dyson juan fa bang deng du shi tu tong guo zan zhu huo pin pai zhi ru fang shi guang gao he zuo bo ke bo zhu. li ru, R17 qin OPPO wei er si pai she" fa xian wan shang" wo ke zhi mei, de zhu chi xia, xie cheng lv xing pai she" ye yi ji ri" jing du da ban de bi sai hen hao de fan ying. bi sai de dui shou shi mei you chan yin, dan yin qi xun su jue qi de bo ke guo nei shang ye qian li de ying xiang xia, bo ke bei yi xie ren ren wei hen kuai jiu hui xia yi kou duan shi pin hou cheng wei chan yin. ran er, yi xie tong yong de Vlogger dui Vlog bing bu le guan, bi ru dong gua ren wei Vlog hui qi huo, dan bu hui cheng wei chu kou, cbvivi ren wei Vlog bu shi he zuo sheng yi." My personal Vlog is unlikely to become a short video of the traffic antidote that has the following main reasons: first, the creation of Vlog threshold is very high, determines that it can only stay in the relatively small circle. A slogan is " to be the creator, but the user from browsing to the creator, one of the biggest gap is the video creation difficulty. First of all equipment, smooth texture and vlog HD lens language is very high to the shooting equipment requirements, the mainstream vlog shooting equipment must ensure that there is at least SONY A7 II, Go Pro and the level of the camera equipped with a stabilizer, also have to consider the UAV up dang ci she bei, zhe shi wei guang da yong hu xun su cai qu chan yin ta you xiang dang yao bu ke ji. Vlog also has very high requirements on the shooting technique, compared with a mirror trill short video, the creators of the vlog camera language, time, music, editing rhythm have very professional grasp, and great energy consumption. The more well reveal their each material there will be 60G70G in an interview, the 5 minutes of the Vlog need to spend 6 to 10 hours of clips from, but also in the computer editing software to complete. Unless it is a fulltime Vlogger or severe enthusiasts, the general users are unlikely to have the time and energy and creative level. di er, VLogo de ni ren geng xiang shi yi zhong yi shu xing shi, hen nan gong ye hua. That is a non pipelined and any form of artistic expression, such as crosstalk, talk show, Vlog creator' s personality charm and talent are not ordinary people can have. Vlog although it is running account records, but the distinctive language of the camera scheduling, character and self expression is very unique. This uniqueness can be seen from the current head of Vlogger background: Casey is a real flim maker, has a background in occupation producer, before doing vlog has done a lot of fame through viral video. Cbvivi is the editor, product manager, as editor and director of new media in " the Bund pictorial", wrote one called " see, the man in the fly!" bo ke. Well the Zhongshan University Department of Philosophy PhD, " the second quarter" vicious beam Huanxiu writers, and the earliest renren. com network red, he read a graduate student writing " in Amsterdam to eat mushroom is a kind of what kind of experience" once widespread in Holland. fei zhu de" bo ke" zai xue xiao bei cheng wei" zhong guo zui hao de bo ke" de liang wen dao mu qian. mu qian, fei zhu shi CEO de shan guang dian. As a kind of self expression of content and form, Vlogger of personal charm is to help users to see Vlog main thrust, a few interesting soul in vlog in reality really is a genius and fun, as well as more gentle, male sterile type, with distinctive personal style knowledge with video production capa cheng shi you yi ge bu cuo de, Scanty Vlogger mo xing de nv peng you, zhe zhi jie dao zhi le yi ge fei chang you xian shu liang de gao pin zhi di VLO huo zai. di san, zhong guo de VLO chuang zuo que fa wen hua tu rang. The core of Vlog is to share life, and through the sharing of life to express individual consciousness and attitude, and the Chinese traditionally did not share the love of the subconscious. But Chinese market does not have the experience of DV generation, the lack of home video culture, Chinese users did not shoot video to record life habits. In recent years the short video hot let more and more people want to express themselves in front of the camera, but the more prominent is the color value, performance, suction eye ingredients, how talent shows itself from a pile of content, such as vibrato on a variety of virtuosity, show Yan ZhixiU tu gao xiao, ke yi shuo shi yong shi jie chuang zao yi ge guo lv qi, VoL qiang diao de zi ran he zhen shi de xu shu bu shi yi zhong lei xing. Vlog is popular largely its authenticity, in more and more individuals begin to pay attention to their own, pay attention to the difference, the unique charm of personality is an important reason to follow all the people. And this is precisely one of the differences between Chinese and Western cultures, that people have no self adapting to highprofile expression differences, and have the confidence of the unique nature of the self. Back up Vlog and trill topic, I think this is not the competition between Vlog and trill, but both sides are in a completely different track, the bottleneck of Vlog itself or the plight of it, and not too much vibrato. Vibrato is a timely to meet the user satisfaction of entertainment products, he just like the sea, you can always find a suitable for your island, while VLog is the integration of social networking, outdoor adventures, and personal IP, the spirit of adventure, a handful of people is the spirit of t ta bi sai, ren zhen, ding wei he guan zhong dou bu yi yang. VLogo huo xu neng huo de hen duo de ren qi, dan ken ding bu hui da dao da duo shu ren de. ci wai, bu yao xiang tai duo. ni bu neng zuo VLog.

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肖磊:熊市里,最大的风险是?

    好一阵子没有写分析了,今天也不想写,但架不住大家的“问候”,很多同学都有点急眼了,留言开骂了,吓我一跳。  其实大可不必啊,投资市场,需要的是沉寂与顿悟,然后将这种交替持之以恒,才是一个正确的投资者行为,着急是没有用的,写分析本身并不是我的工作,不需要完成什么任务,它是一种极其享受的过程,所以该写的时候肯定会写的,我也享受这个过程。再说,我都写了十多年了,停不了了。  那种天天问你观点,天天给你观点的,都很难是一个好的投资者和好的老师,因为思想的供给和需求,跟小说不同,是不需要连续性的,是要符合第一性原理的,你要是问得越多,你越得不到有用的答案。  今天也没啥可写的,纯粹是为了回应一下大家的需求,所以以下内容别太认真的看,基本上是拿起键盘,用不到一小时敲出来的一点随机文字。  第一段里提到了沉寂和顿悟的问题,那么什么是沉寂与顿悟的交替,以及将其持之以恒呢,很简单,比如价值投资的集大成者巴菲特,大部分时间里,不是做投资决策,而是坐在办公室喝可乐、调侃芒格、看书看财报;投机大师索罗斯则大部分时间里,忙着研究哲学、泡妞,而不是在操盘。  当然,仅仅是做一次这样的周期运动,是不够的,比如沉寂一次,然后行动一次,这个大家都能做到,但如果把这样的行为持74ls373引脚图_高鹰生殖中心续十年、二十年、五十年,谁能做到呢?你去看,巴菲特和索罗斯就做到了,只要是投资很成功的人,都是持续做这样的事。  我的意思不是让大家去学他们的一个周期,而是更希望大家修炼自己的心境,这种修炼不是中国所谓的佛家或道家这种修炼,而是一种深入骨髓的积极性学习型修炼,不是修炼完了你发现自己头上有道光,而是发现昨天的自己就是个傻X,然后铸造自己的周期,并建立持续循环的能力。  对于大部分投资者来说,判断市场走势,和做出投资决策,实际上更多的是受外部性影响。初级投资者,就是那些受到身边的人影响的投资者,因为他们一旦投资失败,是能够自我解脱的,至少有人跟他一样。这是人类的天性,就是当自己痛苦的时候,知道有更多的人跟自己的痛苦一样,自己的痛苦就会被神奇的降低了。  如果更上一层,就是能够自己判断一些投资趋势的投资者了,至少是学了一些东西,比如看了很多分析,做了几年的投资,甚至从事着部分投资相关的工作,能够比较自信的做前瞻性判断。比如对货币政策、行业公司、技术指标、国际局势等等,都有了自己的一套认知,这个时候是投资欲望最强的时候。  大部衢州烟草电子商务网_高鹰生殖中心分人会止步于这个阶段,但这个阶段是最危险的阶段,因为你已经成为投资界的一员,你不知不觉的被锁死在这个生态里了,所有的高手,都将围绕你展开攻击。  那么高手是如何利用你的弱点的呢?他们能看到你已经学会了判断市场,并因此而做出投资选择,就像一头小羊学会了吃草和奔跑一样,这就是你的弱点,你诞生了。  防止失联,请加我个人微信号:kanshi8699,或直接扫二维码  是什么让我们成为小羊的呢?抑制不住的选择欲!  举个例子,我把这个理论叫做掷硬币效应,如果你连续掷出十个正面,第十一次掷出正面的概率是多少呢?假设你是一个理性的人,肯定会说,依然是50%,但说归说,如果你因此要拿出真金白银下注,甚至要赌上你好几年的收入,你会押注第十一次是正面还是反面?我相信大多数人会押注正面,因为前十次都是正面,押正面的人越来越多且都赚了。当你学会计算、预测和选择的时候,你就会变得脆弱。  在投资股市的时候,还有一个理论,叫“裙摆理论”, 意思是,经济繁荣时代,女性的裙摆会越来越短;经济一旦进入衰退,短裙则随之变成长裙。原因很简单,经济状况不佳时,男性收入不多,女性不再需要用短裙来吸引男性,同时,女性收入也不好,所以,情绪不高,会用长裙来把身体更多地遮掩起来。  如果用这个理论来做投资指导,就是当你发现,街上女孩子的裙子越来越短的时候,就应该赶紧买股票,反之则卖掉。你可能会问,按照这样的理论做投资,那不是傻吗,实际上你自己可以反思一下自己,每次你做投资决策的时候,其决nanboxing_高鹰生殖中心策依据,可能比这个要傻一百倍。  最近两年我关注区块链数字货币市场比较多,裙摆理论在这个市场就特别明显,去年的时候,打开朋友圈,基本上都是很多女孩子跟同事一起晒各种打扮的,裙子越机械师之魂怎么样_高鹰生殖中心穿越短,而今年以来,随着行情的低落,基本上都开始晒跟家人一起的照片,裙子则越穿越长。如果按照这个来做投资,是不是去年买,今年卖呢?那如果是这样,实际上很可能就是买在最高点,而卖在最低点,亏得更惨。  比如还有很多投资者,会拿发行价、成本价等等,看得见摸得着的数据来做判断,实际上你去看当行情趋势性改变的时候,所谓的发行价、成本价、大师喊话价等等,都没有任何参考意义,因为你的博弈对象根本不考虑这些,高手们只看台风的级别和登陆地,绝对不会关心台风底下的人会用多少成本来应对,因为他们要利用台风发电,而不是负责你的安全。  我举以上一些例子的意思是,一个人的投资受各种认知和投资逻辑的影响,每个投资者都有充足的理由来做出决策,但如果无法跳出这一层,就好比一个人站在一个蚂蚁窝前,看蚂蚁在大雨来临前是如何搬家的一样,蚂蚁看上去有准确判断下雨的能力,但真正的生存优势,是逃脱头顶的那双眼睛和随时可能落下的大脚。这就不能仅仅靠预测来完成。  所以,在真正的巨大的波动面前,能够生存的能力,是超越预测这个级别的。预测所引用的理论就算是非常高级的,其模型就算是非常强大的,准确率就算是非常高的,也往往是滞后的。未来是一个随机数,对未来最好的预测,是应对随机的能力。  当然,预测也是非常重要火石结晶有什么用_高鹰生殖中心的,因为预测本身就是成长和修炼的过程,就是我开篇提到的,沉寂的过程,这个过程如果做不好,很容易就了此残生或误入歧途,比如搞出易经、二十四节气等等预测理论,或持续多年只看某些K线指标,实际上也属于了此残生的结局(了此残生这里的意思是指无法跨越和升级)。  我并没有贬低任何能够辅助判断市场的工具,哪怕用掷色子来做决策,我也是很尊重的,毕竟很多人因此活得挺好,但如果站在另一个角度,他们就好比你家门前补了一辈子鞋的老鞋匠,看上去轻松自如,靠熟练的手艺吃饭,但基本没有摆脱环境和驾驭选择的能力。  熊市里,除了亏钱之外,实际上更大的冲击是,信息不对称的加速放大,以及投资者对自我规划的失控,就像电蒙面超人光战士_高鹰生殖中心影《一出好戏》,风浪之后,所有的角色要重新编排。本文首发于微信公众号:肖磊看市。文章内容属作者个人观点,不代表网立场。投资者据此操作,风险请自担。

    

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